The Partner View: Is that LUV?
posted by: Nick Roman on 2/10/2010
Working with Confirmit partners around the globe, it’s been interesting to observe how different regions of the world have been coming out of the economic downturn of last year. Last October, the IMF predicted global growth for 2010 at 3.1 %. Now this figure has been revised to 3.9 %, so things are certainly looking up, but regionally there will be winners and losers. Sir Martin Sorrell, chief executive of WPP, notably predicted a "LUV"-shaped global recovery in October last year. The LUV shape is made up of an L-shaped recovery for western Europe, a U-shaped one for North America, and a V-shaped one for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and the "next 11" emerging economies (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam).
So, how is this prediction turning out? Probably too early to know for sure, but Australia certainly seems to be in a positive frame of mind. One of Confirmit’s largest clients in the region is Roy Morgan Research, and according to chief executive Gary Morgan, their weekly Consumer Confidence Rating conducted in mid January has recorded a figure of 130, up three weeks in a row to start 2010—the fourth highest ever recorded since Roy Morgan began polling Consumer Confidence in 1973. That is a pretty positive start to the year! Jon Ruttan, one of my main contacts in Sydney (at Confirmit reseller IRM), gave me an interesting summary of the economic state-of-play down under recently by explaining that Australia is rich in resources, has a healthy mix of private and public institutions, and is conservative in finance—comparing it to “Norway, with sunshine”!
Phil Hearn, who runs MRDC (Thailand), our new reseller in Southeast Asia, reports that the prediction of a V-shaped recovery in Asia certainly appears to be on track. According to V. Bruce J. Tolentino of The Asia Foundation, the region (Asia) looks to lead the global economic recovery with a 2010 growth rate forecast at 6.3 %, the highest in the world. China is forecast to experience the fastest growth in 2010 at 9 %, overtaking Japan to become the world’s second largest economy. It is somewhat appropriate then that 2010 is the “Year of the Tiger” in the Chinese zodiac.
Shafiq Hamid of SkillBase (my main reselling contact in the Arab Gulf States) reports that the region is showing a generally positive outlook. With the exception of Dubai, most states in the region are expected to record 3 to 4 % economic growth this year as the price of crude oil rebounds from 2009. The star economy for 2010 looks to be Qatar with a whopping 18% growth expected in 2010! In contrast, however, an economic recovery in Dubai is not expected to take shape this year as the impact of their debt crisis lingers.
That’s probably enough blogging from me for today. I’ll be concluding this topic tomorrow, by looking at how Europe and America are recovering in 2010.